Data study
What It Costs to Heat a Home This Winter, by State (2026-27)
The same 2,000 sq ft house, heated five ways, in all 50 states and DC. We combined the latest EIA residential prices for electricity, natural gas, propane and heating oil with each state's 30-year normal winter to estimate a full heating season's bill, and the cheapest way to heat in each state.
By Marcus Reed. Updated Oct 30, 2026. Propane and heating oil prices: October 2026. Natural gas: 2025. Electricity: 2025.
US average yearly heating cost by system
- Natural gas furnace
- $831
- US average a year, 95% AFUE
- Propane furnace
- $1,631
- US average a year, 95% AFUE
- Heating oil boiler
- $2,788
- US average a year, 85% AFUE
- Electric resistance
- $2,702
- US average a year, 100%
- Air-source heat pump
- $1,138
- US average a year, 8.1 HSPF2
Key findings
- 1Heating a typical 2,000 sq ft home with a gas furnace costs about $831 a year at US average prices, against $1,138 with a heat pump, $1,631 with propane, $2,702 with electric baseboards and $2,788 with heating oil.
- 2Heating oil averaged $6.16 a gallon in October 2026, 73% more than a year earlier, which puts the oil-heated home at $2,788 for the year, up from $1,801 at last winter's average price of $3.98.
- 3Massachusetts is the most expensive state to heat even with the cheapest option available: $1,990 a year with a natural gas furnace, 2.4 times the US gas figure.
- 4A heat pump is the cheapest way to heat in 6 states (Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas and Washington); natural gas wins in the other 43 states and DC.
- 5A heat pump costs less to run than heating oil in every state but Hawaii, and in DC, and less than propane in 40 states and DC.
- 6Electric resistance heat (baseboards, wall and space heaters) is the most expensive way to heat in 15 states and DC; in Alaska it runs $9,614 a year. A heat pump cuts the same electric bill by about 58% at US average rates.
- Heating degree days
- 4,230
- Contiguous US, 1991-2020 normal
- Heat the home needs
- 53.3 million BTU
- A normal year
Cheapest in the US: natural gas furnace, $831 a year
A 2,000 sq ft home with average insulation, a normal winter, and US average fuel prices. The priciest option, heating oil boiler, costs $1,957 more. Without piped gas, the cheapest is air-source heat pump at $1,138.
- Natural gas furnace (95% AFUE)Cheapest$831
561 therms at US average
- Air-source heat pump (8.1 HSPF2)$1,138
6,580 kWh at US average
- Propane furnace (95% AFUE)$1,631
613 gallons at US average
- Electric resistance (100%)$2,702
15,621 kWh at US average
- Heating oil boiler (85% AFUE)$2,788
453 gallons at US average
Every state, every system
Yearly cost to heat the same 2,000 sq ft home in a normal winter. Click a column to sort. Marks: r regional (PADD) price, u US average price, p prior-year state price, used where EIA publishes no current state figure.
| US average | 4,230 | $831 | $1,631 | $2,788 | $2,702 | $1,138 | Gas |
| 6,201 | $1,990 | $3,234 | $4,108 | $6,980 | $3,608 | Gas | |
| 7,916 | $1,920p | $4,140 | $5,085 | $8,121 | $4,198 | Gas | |
| 7,395 | $1,762 | $4,116 | $4,770 | $6,707 | $3,467 | Gas | |
| 7,596 | $1,750 | $4,175 | $4,922 | $6,429 | $3,324 | Gas | |
| 9,979 | $1,656 | $3,848u | $6,577u | $9,614 | $4,970 | Gas | |
| 5,767 | $1,599p | $3,392 | $3,889 | $6,274 | $3,243 | Gas | |
| 6,077 | $1,368 | $3,276 | $4,133 | $5,922 | $2,495 | Gas | |
| 5,933 | $1,279p | $3,641 | $3,874 | $6,437 | $3,328 | Gas | |
| 5,478 | $1,236 | $2,112u | $3,610u | $2,652 | $1,117 | Heat pump | |
| 8,444 | $1,187 | $2,427 | $5,279 | $4,933 | $2,550 | Gas | |
| 7,783 | $1,170 | $2,594r | $5,130u | $3,846 | $1,988 | Gas | |
| 5,170 | $1,106 | $1,994u | $3,407u | $2,934 | $1,236 | Gas | |
| 9,063 | $1,102 | $2,186 | $5,738r | $3,953 | $2,043 | Gas | |
| 5,642 | $1,087 | $2,582 | $3,620 | $4,021 | $2,079 | Gas | |
| 7,439 | $1,023 | $2,064 | $4,617 | $4,989 | $2,579 | Gas | |
| 5,693 | $1,010 | $2,167 | $3,682 | $3,566 | $1,843 | Gas | |
| 6,758 | $966 | $2,268 | $4,454u | $3,956 | $2,045 | Gas | |
| 4,984 | $953 | $1,555 | $3,155r | $2,483 | $1,046 | Gas | |
| 5,206 | $947 | $3,040 | $3,514 | $4,351 | $1,833 | Gas | |
| 7,487 | $945 | $2,000 | $4,740r | $3,699 | $1,912 | Gas | |
| 6,709 | $938 | $2,340 | $4,211 | $4,958 | $2,563 | Gas | |
| 6,823 | $927 | $1,670 | $4,211 | $3,457 | $1,787 | Gas | |
| 4,476 | $925p | $2,470 | $3,013 | $3,220 | $1,356 | Gas | |
| 4,286 | $921 | $2,314 | $2,750 | $2,418 | $1,019 | Gas | |
| 4,841 | $918 | $1,439 | $3,065r | $2,603 | $1,096 | Gas | |
| 4,464 | $913 | $2,428 | $3,030 | $2,824 | $1,190 | Gas | |
| 6,255 | $913 | $1,592 | $3,709 | $2,850 | $1,474 | Gas | |
| 5,122 | $905 | $2,696r | $3,249r | $2,915 | $1,228 | Gas | |
| 7,794 | $897 | $2,375 | $5,137u | $3,736 | $1,931 | Gas | |
| 6,078 | $875 | $1,680 | $3,848r | $3,971 | $2,053 | Gas | |
| 5,581 | $821 | $2,049 | $3,629 | $3,345 | $1,729 | Gas | |
| 6,258 | $817 | $2,114 | $4,125u | $3,020 | $1,561 | Gas | |
| 3,312 | $816 | $1,156 | $2,183u | $1,570 | $662 | Heat pump | |
| 3,769 | $805 | $1,956r | $2,516r | $3,054 | $1,286 | Gas | |
| 4,352 | $793 | $1,763 | $2,730 | $2,128 | $896 | Gas | |
| 2,731 | $714 | $1,258 | $1,732r | $1,486 | $626 | Heat pump | |
| 2,476 | $698 | $955u | $1,632u | $2,975 | $1,253 | Gas | |
| 3,317 | $697p | $1,725 | $2,072 | $1,717 | $723 | Gas | |
| 6,696 | $659 | $2,528 | $4,413u | $2,923 | $1,511 | Gas | |
| 3,543 | $652 | $1,202 | $2,243r | $1,717 | $723 | Gas | |
| 3,510 | $590 | $1,354u | $2,313u | $1,704 | $718 | Gas | |
| 2,597 | $584 | $1,343 | $1,712u | $1,544 | $650 | Gas | |
| 3,785 | $574 | $1,772 | $2,396r | $1,842 | $776 | Gas | |
| 2,639 | $571p | $1,389r | $1,674r | $1,458 | $614 | Gas | |
| 4,333 | $545 | $1,866r | $2,856u | $2,413 | $1,016 | Gas | |
| 2,369 | $505 | $1,065 | $1,561u | $1,227 | $517 | Gas | |
| 1,929 | $459 | $744u | $1,271u | $1,091 | $460 | Gas | |
| 1,827 | $454 | $829 | $1,204u | $1,044 | $440 | Heat pump | |
| 1,666 | $371 | $717r | $1,098u | $773 | $326 | Heat pump | |
| 566 | $185 | $403 | $359r | $319 | $134 | Heat pump | |
| 0 | $0 | $0u | $0u | $0 | $0 | Little heat needed |
Download the full table (CSV). Hawaii is listed but has a near-zero heating load (0 heating degree days), so it is left out of the rankings.
Methodology
The house. One reference home everywhere: 2,000 sq ft, 8 ft ceilings, average insulation (older double-pane windows, some attic insulation). We use the heat loss factor our own sizing tools use for an average home, 0.35 BTU per hour per sq ft per degree F, which gives 700 BTU per hour for every degree the outdoors is colder than inside.
The winter. Heat needed = 700 x heating degree days (base 65 F) x 24 hours x 0.75. The 0.75 is the standard ASHRAE degree-day correction for heat that people, appliances and sunlight add. Degree days are each state's 1991-2020 normal, weighted by where people live: for the 48 contiguous states, the 30-year average of NOAA Climate Prediction Center population-weighted daily degree days; for Alaska, Hawaii and DC, the NOAA 1991-2020 normal at the main airport of the largest city (Anchorage, Honolulu, Reagan National). A normal winter is assumed; a colder or milder season moves every figure in proportion.
The systems. Gas furnace 95% AFUE, propane furnace 95% AFUE, oil boiler 85% AFUE, electric resistance 100%. The air-source heat pump is rated 8.1 HSPF2 (a seasonal COP of 2.37, including its backup heat). HSPF2 is measured for a mid-climate; in climate zones 5 to 7 we use 6.6 HSPF2 (COP 1.93), because heat pumps that publish a cold-region (Region V) rating list it about 19% lower. Fuel heat content follows the EIA: 100,000 BTU per therm, 91,452 BTU per gallon of propane, 138,500 BTU per gallon of heating oil, 3,412 BTU per kWh.
The prices. Electricity is the EIA 2025 annual average residential price (US 17.3 cents per kWh). Natural gas is the EIA 2025 annual residential price (US $15.34 per thousand cubic feet, $1.48 a therm at 10.36 therms per Mcf); 6 states without a published 2025 figure use their 2024 price. Both are total revenue divided by units sold, so fixed monthly charges and taxes are spread into the price. Propane and heating oil are the average of the EIA's weekly residential survey for October 2026, the first month of the 2026-27 heating season (US $2.66 and $6.16 a gallon). The survey covers 38 states for propane and 21 for heating oil; other states use their EIA regional (PADD) average or, where there is none, the US average. Those cells are marked in the table.
What is left out. Furnace and boiler fan and pump electricity, equipment and maintenance costs, tank rental, and the price changes that will happen over the winter. Natural gas and electricity prices are last year's averages; propane and oil are this October's.
Sanity check. At the contiguous-US normal of 4,230 degree days our home needs 53.3 million BTU of heat a year, which takes 561 therms of gas (56.1 million BTU), 613 gallons of propane or 453 gallons of oil. The EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey found the average gas-heated household used 44.9 million BTU of gas for space heating; our home uses 25% more. The EIA's 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook expects the average propane-heated home to burn 494 gallons and the average oil-heated home 402 gallons from November to March; ours burns 24% and 13% more. That is the expected direction: the averages include apartments and smaller homes, and our season includes October and April.
Sources
- EIA, average residential electricity price by state, 2025 (Form EIA-861)
- EIA, natural gas price delivered to residential consumers by state, 2025 annual
- EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, weekly residential propane prices (4 weeks of October 2026)
- EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, weekly residential heating oil prices (October 2026)
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, population-weighted daily heating degree days by state (averaged 1991-2020)
- NOAA NCEI, U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020 (Alaska, Hawaii, DC)
- EIA, Energy Explained: British thermal units (fuel heat content)
- EIA, 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook (October 6, 2026)
- EIA, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020, Table CE4.6
Prices were pulled Oct 30, 2026. The scripts that build the data are scripts/fetch-heating-fuel-prices.mjs and scripts/build-hdd-normals.mjs; the method is the same degree-day math used in our central AC and mini-split calculators.
Cite this data
Free to use in articles and research with a link to this page. Suggested citation:
CrunchYourDollars, "What It Costs to Heat a Home This Winter, by State (2026-27)," updated Oct 30, 2026, https://crunchyourdollars.com/heating-cost-by-state. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA.
Link: https://crunchyourdollars.com/heating-cost-by-state. Full table: CSV. Questions or a state-level angle for your story: contact us.
Cutting the bill
The biggest lever is the heating system itself. In Maine, where a larger share of homes heat with oil than in any other state, the same house costs $5,085 a year on oil and $4,198 on a heat pump even at the cold-climate rating. Size one with the central heat pump calculator for ducted homes or the mini-split calculator for room by room.
Smaller levers: a setback schedule on a smart thermostat trims heating energy by about 8% by ENERGY STAR's estimate, and heating one room with a space heater only pays off if the rest of the house is allowed to cool; check what a space heater costs per hour at your rate first.
Frequently asked questions
How much does it cost to heat a house this winter?
For a 2,000 sq ft home with average insulation in a normal winter, about $831 with a natural gas furnace, $1,138 with an air-source heat pump, $1,631 with propane, $2,702 with electric resistance heat and $2,788 with heating oil, at US average prices. Your state can be far off these numbers: the gas figure runs from $185 in Florida to $1,990 in Massachusetts.
What is the cheapest way to heat a house?
Where piped natural gas is available it is the cheapest option in 43 states and DC of the 49 states and DC with a real heating season. A heat pump is cheapest in Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas and Washington, where winters are mild or gas is expensive relative to electricity. Without gas, a heat pump beats propane in 40 states and DC and heating oil in every state but Hawaii, and in DC.
Which state is the most expensive to heat a home in?
Massachusetts: even with its cheapest option, natural gas furnace, our reference home costs $1,990 a year to heat. With gas, Massachusetts ($1,990) tops the list. The most expensive combination in the table is Alaska with electric resistance heat, $9,614 a year.
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace?
In 6 states, yes: Arkansas, Washington, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana and Texas. Elsewhere gas is cheaper per unit of heat, by $307 a year at US average prices. The gap is widest in cold states with expensive electricity, where we also count the heat pump at its lower cold-climate efficiency (6.6 HSPF2 instead of 8.1). Against propane, heating oil or electric baseboards a heat pump almost always wins.
Why is heating oil so much more expensive this winter?
The EIA's weekly survey put the average residential heating oil price at $6.16 a gallon in October 2026, against $3.56 in the same month last year. The EIA's 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook (October 6, 2026) expects heating oil to average $5.26 from November through March; at that price our oil-heated home would cost $2,381 a year instead of $2,788. Propane is up 10% on the year, to $2.66 a gallon.
How were these heating costs calculated?
Heat needed = 700 BTU per hour per degree F (a 2,000 sq ft home at 0.35 BTU/sq ft/F) x each state's heating degree days x 24 hours x 0.75 for heat from people, appliances and sun. That heat is divided by each system's efficiency and the fuel's heat content, then priced at the state's EIA residential price. It is the same degree-day method our mini-split and central AC calculators use.
Marcus Reed
Founder and Editor, CrunchYourDollars
Marcus Reed builds the sizing tools on CrunchYourDollars. He is a software engineer with a long-running PC hardware and power supply habit, which is where the watts, watt-hours and surge math on this site comes from. Product specs are pulled from manufacturer data sheets, electricity rates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and water chemistry rules from the Water Quality Association. He is not a licensed electrician or plumber: the tools show the math and the matching models so you can make the call, and anything involving your electrical panel should be checked by a licensed pro.
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